Remote work shrinking by 2026? How expats and digital nomads can protect themselves if employers push return‑to‑office
Remote work is not disappearing by 2026, but the type of flexibility available is changing and for expats and digital nomads, that difference matters. The latest data shows that remote work has stabilised rather than declined. Around 22–23% of workers now telework regularly, representing 34–35 million people, and about 25% of all paid workdays are done from home, which is three times higher than in 2019. (Source: BLS, Gallup, WFH Research, 2024–2026 syntheses)
However, the structure of remote work has shifted. Among jobs that can be performed remotely, hybrid has become the dominant model, with 51% hybrid, 28% fully remote, and 21% fully on-site. This confirms that while remote work is now a normal part of the labor market, fully remote arrangements are becoming less common than structured flexibility. (Source: Gallup Workplace Report, 2025).
Looking ahead, the long-term trend is still positive for remote-capable work:
Around 73 million jobs globally can already be done fully remotely
This is expected to grow to 92 million by 2030 (about 25% growth)
Global forecasts, including the World Economic Forum, estimate ~90 million digital remote jobs by 2030
Why expats and digital nomads face extra risk
Remote expats and digital nomads introduce layers of legal risk that give employers strong incentives to limit or revoke cross‑border arrangements.
Which country’s law applies?
For digital nomads, it is not enough that the contract says “governing law: UK/US/etc.”. Courts routinely look at where the work is habitually performed:
Legal guidance on digital‑nomad contracts emphasises that applicable employment law is usually determined by where the work is primarily performed, not just the contract wording; e.g. a UK‑employed worker who mostly works from Portugal may fall under Portuguese labour law.
This affects notice periods, termination protections, working‑time rules, and mandatory benefits, often making dismissals harder or more expensive for employers.
This “hidden” local law application is one reason some employers now restrict “work from anywhere” and push people back into the country where the entity is based.
Tax and social security complexity
Cross-border remote work can create unexpected tax and social security risks:
Employees working abroad for 183+ days may become tax residents and create permanent establishment risks for their employer.
EU telework frameworks now regulate cross-border work. For example, the Luxembourg-based agreement applies when employees work 25–50% remotely from their residence country and requires formal social security declarations.
Cross-border remote setups (workations, international remote work) are increasing, but so is regulatory scrutiny, with fines up to €1,000,000 for serious non-compliance.
Since July 2024, retrospective A1 certificates in the EU can only be issued up to three months back, exposing earlier periods to unexpected social security liabilities.
Implication: What seems like a simple “work abroad” arrangement can quickly turn into a major compliance risk, making office return or workforce centralisation more attractive for risk-averse employers.
Immigration and visa status
For digital nomads and many expats, immigration status is fragile:
Legal guides emphasise that tourist visas do not authorise work – even remote work for a foreign employer; digital nomads are supposed to have either appropriate residence status or a dedicated digital nomad visa.
European digital‑nomad visas (Portugal, Spain, Italy, Croatia, etc.) typically require: a remote contract with a foreign employer, minimum income, health insurance, and a clean criminal record.
If an employer cancels a remote arrangement and insists on in‑office work in another country, a nomad may suddenly be out of legal status (no job → no visa) or forced to leave their current host country.
Net effect: Employers see cross‑border remote as a compliance, tax and immigration risk; governments are tightening frameworks; and employees bear the consequences when companies respond with blanket RTO or geographic restrictions.
Legal baseline: can your employer really force you back?
The answer is “usually yes – unless your contract or local law clearly says otherwise”, with important nuances by country.
| Region / Topic | Legal Position | Key Implications for Employers & Employees |
| General pattern (US, UK, others) | Employers can generally determine the place of work, including requiring office return, unless the contract guarantees permanent remote work. If the contract defines the role as remote or home-based, forcing a full return without renegotiation may breach the contract. In at-will systems (e.g. US), employees may be dismissed for refusing a lawful, non-discriminatory RTO policy. | RTO policies are usually lawful if contracts do not specify remote status. Creates leverage for negotiation, contract amendment, or severance. Limited protection against termination for non-compliance. |
| UK – Immigration & employment specifics | Skilled Worker visa holders may work remotely if allowed in the contract and authorised by the sponsor. Proposed reforms aim to strengthen protection against unfair dismissal and flexible work requests. | Employers must notify authorities within 10 business days of major remote-work pattern changes. No general legal right to work remotely. |
| Germany | No general statutory right to remote work. Employers can set the workplace under Weisungsrecht (right to issue instructions), unless otherwise agreed. LAG Köln (July 11, 2024): Revoking remote work must be reasonable and justified, considering employee interests. Termination for refusing to return is possible but usually requires prior written warnings and legal scrutiny. | Remote work depends on contract, works agreement, or collective agreement. RTO is generally permissible if contractual terms allow it. Arbitrary cancellation of remote work may be challenged. Automatic dismissal policies (e.g. fixed warning rules) are legally risky. |
| Other EU developments | EU level: 2024 consultation on telework and the right to disconnect aims to set minimum standards. | Not yet a binding right to remote work. |
Across Europe, the trend is toward procedural rights (right to request, fair process, transparency), not a guaranteed right to remain remote. Contract terms, case law, and local regulations remain critical.
Protection strategy for expats and digital nomads
This section focuses on what you can proactively do to protect yourself when an employer pushes RTO – especially if you’re abroad or mobile.
| Category | Clause / Action | Key Risk Covered |
| Remote status | Define the place of work as remote (home address in specific city/country; travel only occasionally). Avoid vague wording (“subject to operational needs”, office as primary location). | Prevents unilateral RTO. Limits employer flexibility to pull you back. |
| Location changes | Require mutual written agreement for permanent location changes, with 3–6 months notice and relocation support if applicable. Include severance / good-leaver protection if you refuse relocation and employment ends. | Protects against sudden relocation. Financial protection if location terms change. |
| Cross-border rules | Define permitted countries and maximum days per location (workations, long stays). Clarify who manages and pays for compliance (social security, registrations, posted-worker notifications, immigration). Specify governing law and acknowledge mandatory local laws where work is performed. | Avoids tax residency and immigration issues. Prevents unexpected liability or costs. Ensures legal clarity across jurisdictions. |
| Risk mitigation | Use structured contracts via Employer of Record (EOR) where possible. | Reduces cross-border compliance risk. |
| Visa alignment | Choose a visa that matches actual work reality (e.g. digital nomad visa vs tourist status). Confirm whether you can stay after job loss (job search, freelance options). | Avoids legal exposure or status violations. Prevents sudden loss of residency rights. |